1. Context & Problem Statement

Groundwater resources in Kenya’s urban and peri-urban regions, including the Nairobi Metropolitan Area, face mounting stress from population growth, climate variability, and rising demand. Borehole drilling remains the principal means of groundwater access, yet it entails high financial costs and technical risks when sites are selected without adequate prior screening.

Early-stage groundwater exploration often lacks integrated pre-screening intelligence to guide where detailed geophysical investigations, survey investments, and long-term groundwater planning decisions should be prioritised. This can lead to inefficient allocation of financial and technical resources, particularly in densely populated or geologically complex regions. At the same time, valuable satellite-derived datasets, terrain analyses, and existing geological records remain under-utilised if not systematically fused with hydrogeological reasoning before committing to airborne or ground-based surveys.

GeoAlterSense has been developed to address this specific upstream gap, while fully respecting the mandates and ongoing programmes of institutions such as the Regional Centre for Groundwater Resources Education, Training and Research (RCGW).

2. What GeoAlterSense Is

GeoAlterSense is a geospatial decision-support system designed exclusively for early-stage groundwater targeting and risk reduction. It operates strictly upstream of detailed hydrogeophysical investigations, including airborne electromagnetic methods such as SkyTEM.

The system integrates satellite remote sensing, terrain and geomorphological analysis, structural indicators, and available geological context through AI-assisted, rule-guided spatial reasoning. It generates ranked site intelligence—not prescriptive drilling locations—together with explanatory maps and supporting narratives.

GeoAlterSense does not generate drilling prescriptions, yield guarantees, or regulatory determinations. Its sole purpose is to assist planners, hydrogeologists, and programme designers in focusing subsequent high-resolution investigations on areas of higher relative potential, thereby improving resource efficiency and reducing unnecessary fieldwork.

3. Technical Approach

3.1 Data Inputs

• Optical and multispectral satellite imagery (Sentinel-2, Landsat series)
• Digital elevation models and derived geomorphological parameters (slope, drainage density, curvature)
• Structural and lineament mapping from radar and optical sources
• Historical borehole records and geological maps (where openly available or provided by partners)
• Land-use and environmental layers for contextual interpretation

All inputs are publicly accessible or partner-supplied; no proprietary or restricted datasets are required for baseline operation.

3.2 Analytical Logic (High-Level)

GeoAlterSense performs multi-layer spatial fusion followed by rule-guided pattern recognition informed by established hydrogeological principles. Hydro-favourable indicators (e.g. convergent drainage, fracture density, favourable lithological proxies) are evaluated alongside adverse indicators such as steep slopes, impervious surfaces, and contamination risk proxies.

Each ranked zone is assigned a transparent confidence score based on the degree of multi-source data convergence rather than reliance on any single dataset. The analytical logic is fully explainable, documented, and available for peer review or adjustment in consultation with hydrogeologists.

3.3 Outputs

• Ranked groundwater potential zones or discrete sites (polygons or points)
• Risk classification: Low / Moderate / High
• Indicative depth bands (where data convergence permits)
• Supporting raster maps, vector overlays, and concise narrative summaries
• Outputs are delivered in standard GIS formats (GeoTIFF, shapefile, PDF reports) and can be directly integrated into existing RCGW or partner workflows.

4. Complementarity with GROWANA & SkyTEM

GeoAlterSense is explicitly designed to operate before and in support of airborne electromagnetic surveys such as those deployed under the GROWANA Project. It does not replicate or replace SkyTEM’s ability to produce high-resolution 3D subsurface resistivity models and aquifer geometry.

GeoAlterSense is particularly valuable in defining survey extents, flight prioritisation, and hypothesis formulation ahead of SkyTEM deployment.

Complementary workflow overview:

Stage	Role
Regional / National Screening	GeoAlterSense identifies and ranks priority zones using satellite, terrain, and geological indicators
Targeted Hydrogeophysical Survey	SkyTEM (under GROWANA) maps aquifer geometry, resistivity, and properties at high resolution
Ground Verification & Drilling	Conventional field investigations, test drilling, and well construction

Key message: GeoAlterSense helps ensure that high-value SkyTEM flights and subsequent ground follow-up are directed toward the most promising areas. This aligns directly with GROWANA’s objectives of sustainable aquifer management, identification of managed aquifer recharge opportunities, and local capacity building, while improving the overall cost-effectiveness and policy relevance of RCGW-led groundwater mapping initiatives.

5. Potential Use Cases for RCGW

GeoAlterSense may be explored in the following non-exclusive ways, fully aligned with RCGW’s mandate:

• Pre-screening of zones ahead of SkyTEM survey planning or expansion phases
• Support to county-level groundwater development strategies and resource allocation
• Joint training and capacity-building demonstrations for RCGW technical staff
• Comparative analysis between satellite-derived indicators and SkyTEM-derived results for validation and refinement
• Decision-support layers for donor-funded water security projects in peri-urban and rural counties

Each use case remains at the discretion of RCGW leadership and may be initiated through short technical exchanges.

6. Governance, Data & Ethics

• Data sovereignty: Processing can be performed in-country; no raw partner data leave Kenyan jurisdiction unless explicitly authorised.
• Non-extraction: Partner borehole or survey data supplied for calibration are used solely for agreed analyses and are not stored or commercialised.
• Transparency: All outputs include confidence scores, explanatory layers, and documented assumptions; professional hydrogeological judgment remains paramount.
• Ethics: GeoAlterSense is designed to augment—not override—expert decision-making and complies with Kenyan data-protection and environmental governance standards.

7. Proposed Next Step

A short technical exchange or pilot discussion could explore how GeoAlterSense may complement ongoing groundwater mapping initiatives, including GROWANA, in a manner aligned with RCGW’s mandate and institutional priorities.

8. About Arybit Technologies

Arybit Technologies is a Kenyan company specialising in applied geospatial and AI-assisted decision-support systems for infrastructure planning and natural-resource management. Its work focuses on upstream intelligence that strengthens planning efficiency and technical decision-making in collaboration with public-sector and research institutions.

GeoAlterSense is intended to strengthen early-stage groundwater decision-making by helping planners and hydrogeologists focus detailed investigations where the likelihood of success is highest.